Expanding our Tournament?

It's inevitable, right?  So, what would it have looked like this year?  Before we get to that, we must figure out how the setup of the best tournament in sports would be in expanding the field. 

How many?

How many teams are we expanding to?  The popular amounts that has been talked about recently is 72 and 84.  There are whispers of the field expanding to 96, but for the sake of all our sanities, I will focus on the former two numbers exclusively.

What will the format look like?

I believe the traditional format of a 64-team bracket is favored here, even among the people in favor of expansion.  It simply fits everything everyone loves about the tournament.  A 64-team bracket is likely to stay for the foreseeable future of this beloved tournament.  So, how will they play out the ridiculous amount of play-in games? Let's explore:

Maintain two 16-seed play-ins with the rest "Last X In" games

I present this first, because we are most familiar with this as the NCAA Tournament has been playing at least one 16-seed play-in game for 22 tournaments (since 2001).  For a 72-team tournament, this would present another 2 play-in games for a total of 6 play-in games and two 16-seed play-in games.  For an 84-team tournament, this would produce a whopping 18 play-in games along with the two 16-seed play-in games.  Given this ridiculous amount of play-in games for "last teams in", I cannot see this becoming reality. 

Shoe ain't fit

I think this is more of a reality than I would like for it to be.  Shoe ain't fit?  What does that mean?  It means you use the play-ins for the small conference tournament winners, i.e. your 13, 14, 15 and 16 seeds otherwise known as your Cinderellas.  You could keep the amount of "Last X In" play-in games for a 72-team field, but expand that for the 84-team version.  Ultimately, you would have 4 play-in games (just 16 seeds) for the 72-team tournament with 4 play-in games for the "Last 8 In."  For an 84-team tournament, there would be 8 play-in games (15 and 16 seeds) and 12 play-in games for "Last In."  OR (cover your eyes) invert that to 12 play-ins (14, 15 and 16 seeds) and 8 play-in games for "Last In."  

I think it will end up being close to the latter rather than the former, so what would that look like considering this year's teams?  Let's take a look.

The 72-team NCAA Tournament

16-Seed Play-Ins

Howard v. Wagner

Montana St. v. Grambling St.

Longwood v. Stetson

South Dakota St. v. Saint Peter's

Obviously, taking SD State and St. Peter's from the 15 seeds would push all other teams up in order to make room for the 4 newly-invited teams.  On one side, this theoretically makes the double-digit seeds tougher, but I see an unintentional consequence as a result. 

Last 8 In

Pittsburgh v. Indiana St.  (11-seed)

Seton Hall v. Oklahoma. (11-seed)

Colorado St. v. Virginia. (11-seed)

Colorado v. Boise St.  (10-seed)

There's not a huge difference with this scenario, but it does push some of the top mid-major Cinderellas into tougher first-round games.  Let's look at a more drastic scenario.

The 84-team Tournament

Lower seed Play-Ins

The same 16-seed matchups above would apply here along with:

15-seed matchups

Western Kentucky v. Long Beach St.

Colgate v. Morehead St.

Akron v. Oakland

Charleston v. Samford

Here, you see Charleston and Samford as 15 seeds.  FIFTEEN SEEDS!?!  What a tough first-round matchup for a 2-seed.  Let's continue:

14-seed matchups (optional depending on how many "Last In" games are played)

Yale v. Vermont

UAB v. McNeese St.

James Madison v. Grand Canyon

Duquesne v. NC State

This is insanity.  The winners of these matchups would go up against 3-seed teams.  Again, I will mention unintended consequences for those higher seeded teams. 

Last In Play-in games

12-seed matchups

UNLV v. Georgia

Kansas St. v. Iowa

Bradley v. Ohio St.

Princeton v. Utah

11-seed matchups

Cincinnati v. Villanova

Wake Forest v. St. John's

Pittsburgh v. Indiana St.

Seton Hall v. Oklahoma

10-seed matchups (optional as described above)

Colorado St. v. Virginia

Colorado v. Boise St.

9-seed matchups (optional as described above)

Nevada v. Northwestern

TCU v. Texas A&M

Phew!  That's a lot to unpack.  First off, I capped the amount of teams from any one conference to 3 within the "Last In" group.  I have UNLV and K-State included with the idea that the play-ins would expand to the 14 seeds.  Likewise, Providence is not included given Seton Hall, St. John's and Villanova already in the "Play In" group.  Most of the decision-making of included teams came from their KenPom rating, nullifying any team that was .500 or below. 

Wrap-Up

The future is uncertain, but I think all college basketball fans are bracing themselves for the inevitable expansion of the best tournament in the history of sports.  Could they decide to simply add branches extending the bracket outward?  Yes, that is a possibility although that would infringe on the beautiful 64-team format.  When it happens, there will surely be griping and groaning about the change, but we all know the end result.  We will continue to watch this tournament because it produces a glut of wonderful stories: devastating and elating, gut-wrenching and thrilling, ending in tears, both of sadness and jubilation, alike.  There is truly no tournament like it.