Wednesday, March 20, 2024

Expanding our Tournament

 Expanding our Tournament?

It's inevitable, right?  So, what would it have looked like this year?  Before we get to that, we must figure out how the setup of the best tournament in sports would be in expanding the field. 

How many?

How many teams are we expanding to?  The popular amounts that has been talked about recently is 72 and 84.  There are whispers of the field expanding to 96, but for the sake of all our sanities, I will focus on the former two numbers exclusively.

What will the format look like?

I believe the traditional format of a 64-team bracket is favored here, even among the people in favor of expansion.  It simply fits everything everyone loves about the tournament.  A 64-team bracket is likely to stay for the foreseeable future of this beloved tournament.  So, how will they play out the ridiculous amount of play-in games? Let's explore:

Maintain two 16-seed play-ins with the rest "Last X In" games

I present this first, because we are most familiar with this as the NCAA Tournament has been playing at least one 16-seed play-in game for 22 tournaments (since 2001).  For a 72-team tournament, this would present another 2 play-in games for a total of 6 play-in games and two 16-seed play-in games.  For an 84-team tournament, this would produce a whopping 18 play-in games along with the two 16-seed play-in games.  Given this ridiculous amount of play-in games for "last teams in", I cannot see this becoming reality. 

Shoe ain't fit

I think this is more of a reality than I would like for it to be.  Shoe ain't fit?  What does that mean?  It means you use the play-ins for the small conference tournament winners, i.e. your 13, 14, 15 and 16 seeds otherwise known as your Cinderellas.  You could keep the amount of "Last X In" play-in games for a 72-team field, but expand that for the 84-team version.  Ultimately, you would have 4 play-in games (just 16 seeds) for the 72-team tournament with 4 play-in games for the "Last 8 In."  For an 84-team tournament, there would be 8 play-in games (15 and 16 seeds) and 12 play-in games for "Last In."  OR (cover your eyes) invert that to 12 play-ins (14, 15 and 16 seeds) and 8 play-in games for "Last In."  

I think it will end up being close to the latter rather than the former, so what would that look like considering this year's teams?  Let's take a look.

The 72-team NCAA Tournament

16-Seed Play-Ins

Howard v. Wagner

Montana St. v. Grambling St.

Longwood v. Stetson

South Dakota St. v. Saint Peter's

Obviously, taking SD State and St. Peter's from the 15 seeds would push all other teams up in order to make room for the 4 newly-invited teams.  On one side, this theoretically makes the double-digit seeds tougher, but I see an unintentional consequence as a result. 

Last 8 In

Pittsburgh v. Indiana St.  (11-seed)

Seton Hall v. Oklahoma. (11-seed)

Colorado St. v. Virginia. (11-seed)

Colorado v. Boise St.  (10-seed)

There's not a huge difference with this scenario, but it does push some of the top mid-major Cinderellas into tougher first-round games.  Let's look at a more drastic scenario.

The 84-team Tournament

Lower seed Play-Ins

The same 16-seed matchups above would apply here along with:

15-seed matchups

Western Kentucky v. Long Beach St.

Colgate v. Morehead St.

Akron v. Oakland

Charleston v. Samford

Here, you see Charleston and Samford as 15 seeds.  FIFTEEN SEEDS!?!  What a tough first-round matchup for a 2-seed.  Let's continue:

14-seed matchups (optional depending on how many "Last In" games are played)

Yale v. Vermont

UAB v. McNeese St.

James Madison v. Grand Canyon

Duquesne v. NC State

This is insanity.  The winners of these matchups would go up against 3-seed teams.  Again, I will mention unintended consequences for those higher seeded teams. 

Last In Play-in games

12-seed matchups

UNLV v. Georgia

Kansas St. v. Iowa

Bradley v. Ohio St.

Princeton v. Utah

11-seed matchups

Cincinnati v. Villanova

Wake Forest v. St. John's

Pittsburgh v. Indiana St.

Seton Hall v. Oklahoma

10-seed matchups (optional as described above)

Colorado St. v. Virginia

Colorado v. Boise St.

9-seed matchups (optional as described above)

Nevada v. Northwestern

TCU v. Texas A&M

Phew!  That's a lot to unpack.  First off, I capped the amount of teams from any one conference to 3 within the "Last In" group.  I have UNLV and K-State included with the idea that the play-ins would expand to the 14 seeds.  Likewise, Providence is not included given Seton Hall, St. John's and Villanova already in the "Play In" group.  Most of the decision-making of included teams came from their KenPom rating, nullifying any team that was .500 or below. 

Wrap-Up

The future is uncertain, but I think all college basketball fans are bracing themselves for the inevitable expansion of the best tournament in the history of sports.  Could they decide to simply add branches extending the bracket outward?  Yes, that is a possibility although that would infringe on the beautiful 64-team format.  When it happens, there will surely be griping and groaning about the change, but we all know the end result.  We will continue to watch this tournament because it produces a glut of wonderful stories: devastating and elating, gut-wrenching and thrilling, ending in tears, both of sadness and jubilation, alike.  There is truly no tournament like it.


Sunday, March 17, 2024

The BIG Heartland Bracketology: March 17 FINAL

 

The BIG Heartland Bracketology: March 17 FINAL

Updated: Sun., Mar. 17 - 4:45 pm

TRUE SEED LIST

1. UCONN (1)
2. Purdue (1)
3. Houston (1)
4. North Carolina (1)
5. Tennessee (2)
6. Arizona (2)
7. IOWA STATE (2)
8. Marquette (2)
9. Creighton (3)
10. Baylor (3)
11. AUBURN (3)
12. Kentucky (3)
13. Kansas (4)
14. Duke (4)
15. ILLINOIS (4)
16. Alabama (4)
17. Brigham Young (5)
18. Wisconsin (5)
19. South Carolina (5)
20. SAINT MARY'S (5)
21. Utah State (6)
22. Texas Tech (6)
23. San Diego State (6)
24. Nevada (6)
25. Gonzaga (7)
26. Washington State (7)
27. Clemson (7)
28. Florida (7)
29. Dayton (8)
30. Boise State (8)
31. Texas (8)
32. Colorado State (8)
33. Nebraska (9)
34. Texas Christian (9)
35. Northwestern (9)
36. NEW MEXICO (9)
37. Mississippi State (10)
38. OREGON (10)
39. Michigan State (10)
40. Texas A&M (10)
41. Florida Atlantic (11)
42. Oklahoma (11)
43. Colorado (11)
44. DRAKE (11)
45. NC STATE (11)
46. JAMES MADISON (11)
47. GRAND CANYON (12)
48. MCNEESE STATE (12)
49. SAMFORD (12)
50. UAB (12)
51. DUQUESNE (13)
52. VERMONT (13)
53. YALE (13)
54. COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON (13)
55. OAKLAND (14)
56. AKRON (14)
57. MOREHEAD STATE (14)
58. COLGATE (14)
59. WESTERN KENTUCKY (15)
60. LONG BEACH STATE (15)
61. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (15)
62. LONGWOOD (15)
63. STETSON (16)
64. SAINT PETER'S (16)
65. GRAMBLING STATE (16)
66. MONTANA STATE (16)
67. HOWARD (16)
68. WAGNER (16)


Bracket Adjustments: Drake moves to 10-seed to avoid 1st round conflicts with Play-In games.

Last 2 Byes: Michigan State, Mississippi State
Last 4 In: Texas A&M, FAU, Oklahoma, Colorado
First 6 Out: St. John's, Virginia, Indiana State, Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Providence

EAST (Boston, MA)

Brooklyn, NY
1  UCONN
16 SAINT PETER'S
8  Texas
9  Northwestern
Brooklyn, NY
4  Duke
13 DUQUESNE
5   Wisconsin
12  MCNEESE STATE
Pittsburgh, PA
6  Nevada
11 JAMES MADISON
3  AUBURN
14 OAKLAND
Omaha, NE
7  Washington State
10 Mississippi State
2  IOWA STATE

15  SOUTH DAKOTA STATE


WEST (Los Angeles, CA)

Charlotte, NC
1  North Carolina
16 GRAMBLING/MONTANA ST.
8  Colorado State
9  Texas Christian
Salt Lake City, UT
4  Kansas
13 VERMONT
5  South Carolina
12 GRAND CANYON
Pittsburgh, PA
6  San Diego State
11 Oklahoma/Colorado
3  Kentucky
14 AKRON
Salt Lake City, UT
7  Gonzaga
10 DRAKE
2  Arizona
15 LONG BEACH STATE


MIDWEST (Detroit, MI)

Indianapolis, IN
1  Purdue
16 HOWARD/WAGNER
8  Dayton
9  NEW MEXICO
Spokane, WA
4  Alabama
13 YALE
5  Brigham Young
12 UAB
Omaha, NE
6  Utah State
11 NORTH CAROLINA STATE
3  Baylor
14 MOREHEAD STATE
Indianapolis, IN
7  Florida
10 OREGON
2  Marquette
15 WESTERN KENTUCKY


SOUTH (Dallas, TX)

Memphis, TN
1  Houston
16 STETSON
8  Boise State
9  Nebraska
Spokane, WA
4  ILLINOIS
13 CHARLESTON
5  SAINT MARY'S
12  SAMFORD
Memphis, TN
6  Texas Tech
11 Texas A&M/Florida Atlantic
3  Creighton
14 COLGATE
Charlotte, NC
7  Clemson
10 Michigan State
2  Tennessee
15 LONGWOOD



*Bracket linked to and featured on www.bracketmatrix.com/

Monday, March 11, 2024

The BIG Heartland Bracketology: March 10

 

The BIG Heartland Bracketology: March 10

Updated: Sun., Mar. 10 - 10:45 pm

TRUE SEED LIST

1. PURDUE (1)
2. HOUSTON (1)
3. UCONN (1)
4. TENNESSEE (1)
5. ARIZONA (2)
6. NORTH CAROLINA (2)
7. Creighton (2)
8. Kansas (2)
9. Baylor (3)
10. Iowa State (3)
11. Duke (3)
12. Kentucky (3)
13. Marquette (4)
14. Alabama (4)
15. Brigham Young (4)
16. Auburn (4)
17. Illinois (5)
18. Clemson (5)
19. Wisconsin (5)
20. UTAH STATE (5)
21. Nevada (6)
22. San Diego State (6)
23. Dayton (6)
24. South Carolina (6)
25. Washington State (7)
26. Boise State (7)
27. Gonzaga (7)
28. ST. MARY'S (7)
29. Florida (8)
30. Texas Tech (8)
31. Nebraska (8)
32. Northwestern (8)
33. Texas (9)
34. Colorado State (9)
35. Michigan State (9)
36. Texas Christian (9)
37. Florida Atlantic (10)
38. Seton Hall (10)
39. Oklahoma (10)
40. Virginia (10)
41. New Mexico (11)
42. Mississippi State (11)
43. Indiana State (11)
44. Providence (11)
45. DRAKE (11)
46. JAMES MADISON (11)
47. RICHMOND (12)
48. SOUTH FLORIDA (12)
49. MCNEESE STATE (12)
50. PRINCETON (12)
51. GRAND CANYON (13)
52. SAMFORD (13)
53. UC IRVINE (13)
54. VERMONT (13)
55. COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON (14)
56. AKRON (14)
57. MOREHEAD STATE (14)
58. OAKLAND (14)
59. COLGATE (15)
60. LONGWOOD (15)
61. MONTANA (15)
62. SAM HOUSTON STATE (15)
63. QUINNIPIAC (16)
64. STETSON (16)
65. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (16)
66. MERRIMACK (16)
67. NORFOLK STATE (16)
68. GRAMBLING (16)


Bracket Adjustments: Auburn moves from a 4-seed to 5-seed with Illinois to avoid the first 4 SEC teams being in the same region.

Last 2 Byes: Virginia, Oklahoma
Last 4 In: Providence, Indiana State, Mississippi State, New Mexico
First 6 Out: Colorado, St. John's, Villanova, Iowa, Pitt, Wake Forest

MIDWEST (Detroit, MI)

Indianapolis, IN
1  PURDUE
16 GRAM/NSU
8  Texas Tech
9  Colorado State
Brooklyn, NY
4  Marquette
13 SAMFORD
5  Auburn
12 RICHMOND
Pittsburgh, PA
6  South Carolina
11 JAMES MADISON
3  Duke
14 AKRON
Omaha, NE
7  Washington State
10 Seton Hall
2  Kansas
15 SAM HOUSTON STATE


WEST (Los Angeles, CA)

Charlotte, NC
1  TENNESSEE
16 SOUTH DAKOTA ST./MERRIMACK
8  Nebraska
9  Texas
Salt Lake City, UT
4  Brigham Young
13 UC IRVINE
5  Wisconsin
12 PRINCETON
Memphis, TN
6  San Diego State
11 Miss State/Providence
3  Baylor
14 CHARLESTON
Salt Lake City, UT
7  Gonzaga
10 Virginia
2  ARIZONA
15 MONTANA



EAST (Boston, MA)

Brooklyn, NY
1  UCONN
16 QUINNIPIAC
8  Northwestern
9  Texas Christian
Salt Lake City, UT
4  Alabama
13 GRAND CANYON
5   Clemson
12  SOUTH FLORIDA
Omaha, NE
6  Nevada
11 DRAKE
3  Iowa State
14 OAKLAND
Charlotte, NC
7  SAINT MARY'S
10 Florida Atlantic
2  NORTH CAROLINA
15  COLGATE

SOUTH (Dallas, TX)

Memphis, TN
1  HOUSTON
16 STETSON
8  Florida
9  Michigan State
Spokane, WA
4  Illinois
13 VERMONT
5  UTAH STATE
12  MCNEESE STATE
Pittsburgh, PA
6  Dayton
11 New Mexico/Indiana State
3  Kentucky
14 MOREHEAD STATE
Indianapolis, IN
7  Boise State
10 Oklahoma
2  Creighton
15 LONGWOOD



*Bracket linked to and featured on www.bracketmatrix.com/

Sunday, March 3, 2024

The BIG Heartland Bracketology: March 3, 2024

 

The BIG Heartland Bracketology: March 3

Updated: Tue., Mar. 3 - 9:45 pm

TRUE SEED LIST

1. PURDUE (1)
2. HOUSTON (1)
3. UCONN (1)
4. ARIZONA (1)
5. TENNESSEE (2)
6. NORTH CAROLINA (2)
7. Kansas (2)
8. Marquette (2)
9. Creighton (3)
10. Baylo (3)
11. Iowa State (3)
12. Alabama (3)
13. Duke (4)
14. Brigham Young (4)
15. Illinois (4)
16. Kentucky (4)
17. Auburn (5)
18. San Diego State (5)
19. Wisconsin (5)
20. Dayton (5)
21. Clemson (6)
22. Washington State (6)
23. South Carolina (6)
24. UTAH STATE (6)
25. Boise State (7)
26. SAINT MARY'S (7)
27. Northwestern (7)
28. Nevada (7)
29. Colorado State (8)
30. Texas (8)
31. Florida (8)
32. Texas Tech (8)
33. Nebraska (9)
34. Seton Hall (9)
35. Michigan State (9)
36. Providence (9)
37. Texas Christian (10)
38. Gonzaga (10)
39. Virginia (10)
40. Mississippi State (10)
41. Oklahoma (11)
42. Florida Atlantic (11)
43. New Mexico (11)
44. Villanova (11)
45. INDIANA STATE (11)
46. RICHMOND (11)
47. GRAND CANYON (12)
48. MCNEESE STATE (12)
49. SOUTH FLORIDA (12)
50. APPALACHIAN STATE (12)
51. YALE (13)
52. SAMFORD (13)
53. UC IRVINE (13)
54. LOUISIANA TECH (13)
55. AKRON (14)
56. COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON (14)
57. VERMONT (14)
58. OAKLAND (14)
59. HIGH POINT (15)
60. EASTERN WASHINGTON (15)
61. COLGATE (15)
62. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (15)
63. QUINNIPIAC (16)
64. LITTLE ROCK (16)
65. EASTERN KENTUCKY (16)
66. CENTRAL CONN STATE (16)
67. NORFOLK STATE (16)
68. GRAMBLING (16)


Bracket Adjustments: 

Last 2 Byes: Mississippi State, Virginia
Last 4 In: Oklahoma, FAU, New Mexico, Villanova
First 6 Out: Iowa, Wake Forest, Drake, St. John's, Colorado, Utah

MIDWEST (Detroit, MI)

Indianapolis, IN
1  PURDUE
16 GRAM/NSU
8  Texas
9  Seton Hall
Brooklyn, NY
4  Duke
13 SAMFORD
5  Auburn
12 MCNEESE STATE
Memphis, TN
6  Clemson
11 Oklahoma/FAU
3  Creighton
14 AKRON
Omaha, NE
7  Boise State
10 Gonzaga
2  KANSAS
15 EASTERN WASHINGTON


WEST (Los Angeles, CA)

Salt Lake City, UT
1  ARIZONA
16 LITTLE ROCK
8  Texas Tech
9  Michigan State
Salt Lake City, UT
4  Brigham Young
13 YALE
5  San Diego State
12 GRAND CANYON
Omaha, NE
6  South Carolina
11 New Mexico/Villanova
3  Baylor
14 OAKLAND
Indianapolis, IN
7  SAINT MARY'S
10 Mississippi State
2  Marquette
15 COLGATE



EAST (Boston, MA)

Brooklyn, NY
1  UCONN
16 QUINNIPIAC
8  Florida
9  Nebraska
Spokane, WA
4  Illinois
13 LA TECH
5   Dayton
12  APPALACHIAN STATE
Pittsburgh, PA
6  UTAH STATE
11 RICHMOND
3  Alabama
14 CHARLESTON
Charlotte, NC
7  Northwestern
10 Texas Christian
2  NORTH CAROLINA
15  HIGH POINT

SOUTH (Dallas, TX)

Memphis, TN
1  HOUSTON
16 CCSU/EKU
8  Colorado State
9  Providence
Spokane, WA
4  Kentucky
13 UC IRVINE
5  Wisconsin
12  SOUTH FLORIDA
Pittsburgh, PA
6  Washington State
11 INDIANA STATE
3  Iowa State
14 VERMONT
Charlotte, NC
7  Nevada
10 Virginia
2  TENNESSEE
15 SOUTH DAKOTA STATE



*Bracket linked to and featured on www.bracketmatrix.com/